Hoping to see snow falling to the ground on Christmas?

Depending on where you are in the Okanagan, the odds could be slim.

With limited snow in the forecast and current temperatures hovering around six degrees above seasonal, residents in Kelowna, Vernon and Penticton shouldn't get their hopes up about seeing a white Christmas, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan.

"At this point, there would have to be a Christmas miracle to get something of that nature," Castellan said.

"When looking at the pattern, it's on the warmer side right now and temperatures are still above zero which doesn't really lend itself to snow in the forecast."

As of the evening of Dec. 19, the federal forecaster is calling for cloudy skies, 4 C marks, and no precipitation across the region on Dec. 25.

Forecasts in Salmon Arm are similar, but the city could see "periods of snow" on Christmas Eve, unlike its regional counterparts.

Environment Canada has analyzed 69 years' worth of Christmas weather records for 45 major centres across the nation, including Kelowna and Penticton.

says Kelowna has experienced a white Christmas 64 per cent of the time from 1955 to 2023. Penticton has seen it 32 per cent of the time, the third lowest percentage on the list (Victoria and Vancouver have the lowest odds).

According to Environment Canada's definition, at least two centimetres of snow has to be on the ground at 7 a.m. for it to be considered a white Christmas.

That, however, doesn't constitute what meteorologists call a "perfect Christmas."

"That would mean there's snow on the ground and there's snow accumulating at the same time," Castellan explained.

With daytime temperatures expected to remain above zero and a 60 per cent chance of flurries only on Dec. 23, Castellan says it's unlikely for either scenario to play out in Kelowna, Vernon, or Penticton.

"A couple of our models are trending for it to be a little bit colder just after Christmas," the meteorologist said. "I would argue that if there's a hope out there for snow to come down to the valley bottom, it would be during that break between Christmas and New Year's."

Although no major snowfalls are currently in the forecast, Castellan is reminding those who expect to travel on B.C.'s highways to watch for weather warnings.

"The highways are another ball game," the meteorologist said. "Dealing with the elevation there, we've seen some pretty treacherous conditions."