After a summer of historic tumult, the path to the presidency for both and this fall is becoming much clearer.

The Democratic vice president and the Republican former president will devote almost all of their remaining time and resources to just seven states. They will spend hundreds of millions of dollars targeting voters who, in many cases, have just begun to pay attention to the election. And their campaigns will try to focus their messages on three familiar issues 香蕉视频直播� the economy, immigration and abortion 香蕉视频直播� even in the midst of heated debates over character, culture and democracy.

The candidates in what will be their first meeting ever. The nation香蕉视频直播檚 premier swing state, Pennsylvania, begins in-person absentee voting the week after. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four states with a dozen more to follow by mid-October.

In just 63 days, the final votes will be cast to decide which one of them will lead the world香蕉视频直播檚 most powerful nation.

Privately, at least, both camps acknowledge that victory is no sure thing as they begin the eight-week sprint to Election Day. Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in most national polls conducted since .

The Harris campaign still put out a memo over the weekend casting itself as 香蕉视频直播渢he clear underdogs香蕉视频直播� in the contest.

香蕉视频直播淭here香蕉视频直播檚 not a scenario here that香蕉视频直播檚 easy,香蕉视频直播� Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said in an interview. 香蕉视频直播淭he pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And that香蕉视频直播檚 just a reality.香蕉视频直播�

Trump, meanwhile, rejects any indicators that suggest Harris is ahead even as he lashes out at her in deeply personal and sometimes apocalyptic terms, declaring that 香蕉视频直播渙ur country is finished香蕉视频直播� if she wins.

香蕉视频直播淎s we move past Labor Day, we will really get into the time where voters start to harden their opinions,香蕉视频直播� said James Blair, the Trump campaign香蕉视频直播檚 political director. 香蕉视频直播淲e feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized. But there香蕉视频直播檚 certainly plenty of work to be done.香蕉视频直播�

The electoral map settles on seven states

Just over a month ago, Trump allies suggested Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Virginia or even New Jersey might be in play. Neither side believes that is still the case on Labor Day weekend.

In replacing Biden as the party香蕉视频直播檚 nominee, Harris breathed new life into the Democrats香蕉视频直播� political prospects, especially across the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. All four states have significant numbers of African Americans and Latinos, traditionally Democratic constituencies who were down nationally on Biden but appear to have come home to rally behind Harris.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was among the senior GOP officials who between Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whose feud threatened to undermine the Republican effort in the state. Graham told The Associated Press he was worried about Georgia香蕉视频直播檚 shift leftward.

香蕉视频直播淭rump was up 5 or 6 points, and all over the course of a month it香蕉视频直播檚 become much more competitive,香蕉视频直播� he said.

Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, an adviser to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, said even a slight uptick in the Black vote has the potential to give Harris the edge in North Carolina, pointing to Mecklenburg County, the home of the Charlotte metro area, but also fast-growing counties such as Durham and Wake.

香蕉视频直播淚f Kamala Harris could get them to turn out at the rate of Republicans in rural North Carolina, game over for Republicans,香蕉视频直播� Shumaker said of Black voters.

At the same time, Trump remains decidedly on offense in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which form the so-called Democratic 香蕉视频直播渂lue wall香蕉视频直播� that he narrowly carried in 2016 and barely lost in 2020.

Those seven states 香蕉视频直播� in addition to swing districts in Nebraska and Maine that each award single Electoral College votes 香蕉视频直播� will draw virtually all of the candidates香蕉视频直播� attention and resources over the next eight weeks.

Trump is investing more advertising dollars in Pennsylvania than any other state through Election Day.

A Trump victory in Pennsylvania alone would make it much more difficult for Harris to earn the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Harris香蕉视频直播� team insists she has multiple pathways to victory.

The Democrats香蕉视频直播� organizing advantage

In the fight to frame the election on the air and reach voters in person, Democrats currently have a decided advantage.

Harris香蕉视频直播� team is on pace to outspend Trump香蕉视频直播檚 camp 2-to-1 in television advertising over the next two months. And even before Biden made way for Harris, the Democrats wielded superior campaign infrastructure in the states that matter most.

Harris香蕉视频直播� team, which includes her campaign and an allied super PAC, have more than $280 million in television and radio reservations for the period between Tuesday and Election Day, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Trump香蕉视频直播檚 team, by contrast, has $133 million reserved for the final stretch, although that number is expected to grow.

Trump香蕉视频直播檚 side is actually narrowly outspending Harris香蕉视频直播� on the airwaves in Pennsylvania, where both sides will spend more than $146 million between Tuesday and Election Day, according to AdImpact, a figure that dwarfs that of any other state. Georgia is drawing nearly $80 million in ad spending over the campaign香蕉视频直播檚 final eight weeks.

But in the other five battleground states, Harris largely has the airwaves largely to herself 香蕉视频直播� at least for now.

Trump and his allied super PACs have made only marginal ad reservations in Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada to date. Harris香蕉视频直播� team, by comparison, is investing no less than $21 million in each of the five states, according to an AdImpact analysis.

Harris香蕉视频直播� team also boasts more than 300 coordinated offices and 2,000 staff on the ground in swing states, according to her campaign香蕉视频直播檚 weekend memo.

Blair, the Trump campaign香蕉视频直播檚 political director, disputes that Democrats have as big an organizing advantage as those numbers make it seem. He pointed to outside allies that will organize for Trump are well-funded, including a new effort backed by billionaire Elon Musk.

Trump香蕉视频直播檚 campaign on Tuesday said it also has more than 100 dedicated campaign offices in key states, which are backed by another 200 existing GOP offices dedicated to Republican victories this fall.

Here香蕉视频直播檚 what the polls say

Both candidates are locked in close races across the seven top swing states. Democratic pollster John Anzalone said Harris 香蕉视频直播減ut the Democrats back in the game to where it香蕉视频直播檚 kind of a toss-up.香蕉视频直播�

But now comes the hard part, Anzalone said.

香蕉视频直播淧ost Labor Day, when the bell rings, there is a battle for a slim universe of 香蕉视频直播� you can call them anything you want: persuasion voters, swing voters, independent voters 香蕉视频直播� and it香蕉视频直播檚 pretty small, and that香蕉视频直播檚 where each side gets a billion dollars,香蕉视频直播� Anzalone said.

Many independents appear to find both candidates unsatisfying, according to in August.

For now, Harris also has a slight advantage on some key traits among independents, while she and Trump are about even on others.

For example, about 3 in 10 independents say that 香蕉视频直播渉onest香蕉视频直播� describes Harris better, while about 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better. About 3 in 10 also say that 香蕉视频直播渃ommitted to democracy香蕉视频直播� describes Harris better, while less than 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better.

The candidates were about equally likely to be perceived by independents as capable of winning the election, capable of handling a crisis, and 香蕉视频直播渃aring about people like you.香蕉视频直播�

Who is the 香蕉视频直播榗hange candidate香蕉视频直播�?

The race may ultimately be decided by whichever candidate can most successfully be cast as the 香蕉视频直播渃hange candidate香蕉视频直播� given that about 7 in 10 voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, based on conducted in late July after Biden withdrew from the race.

Trump was the face of change when he won the 2016 election. And even after serving in the White House for four years, he continues to energize millions of frustrated voters who embrace his brash leadership style and unwillingness to follow the traditional rules of politics.

Harris has been Biden香蕉视频直播檚 vice president for nearly four years, yet the historic nature of her candidacy 香蕉视频直播� she would be the first woman president 香蕉视频直播� allows her to make a convincing case that she represents a new direction for the country, said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville.

Still, he香蕉视频直播檚 worried about his party香蕉视频直播檚 香蕉视频直播渟evere underperformance香蕉视频直播� in the so-called 香蕉视频直播渂lue wall香蕉视频直播� states in recent elections.

香蕉视频直播淚香蕉视频直播檒l feel good after the election,香蕉视频直播� Carville said. 香蕉视频直播淟et香蕉视频直播檚 get the hay in the barn. There香蕉视频直播檚 still a lot of hay out there in the field.香蕉视频直播�