A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada 香蕉视频直播� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
香蕉视频直播淚t香蕉视频直播檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,香蕉视频直播� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a 香蕉视频直播渨orking majority香蕉视频直播� on pretty much all policy decisions.
香蕉视频直播淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didn香蕉视频直播檛 control the flow of debate and information香蕉视频直播� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.香蕉视频直播�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election 香蕉视频直播� scheduled for Sept. 20 香蕉视频直播� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that won香蕉视频直播檛 be enough for a majority 香蕉视频直播� and the Liberals know it.
香蕉视频直播淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?香蕉视频直播� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. 香蕉视频直播淗e香蕉视频直播檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and he香蕉视频直播檚 done so in very targeted ways.香蕉视频直播�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals don香蕉视频直播檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
香蕉视频直播淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,香蕉视频直播� he said.
In both the party香蕉视频直播檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at Trudeau香蕉视频直播檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a 香蕉视频直播渃ertain credibility at the moment香蕉视频直播� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who don香蕉视频直播檛 want the Conservatives, but don香蕉视频直播檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.香蕉视频直播�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country 香蕉视频直播� such as B.C. 香蕉视频直播� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform 香蕉视频直播� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day 香蕉视频直播� and it includes initiatives that 香蕉视频直播測ou haven香蕉视频直播檛 heard from Conservatives香蕉视频直播� before.
香蕉视频直播淚t香蕉视频直播檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because that香蕉视频直播檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,香蕉视频直播� Leader Erin O香蕉视频直播橳oole states in the document. He also promises to 香蕉视频直播渢ake climate change seriously,香蕉视频直播� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
香蕉视频直播淚 think that O香蕉视频直播橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,香蕉视频直播� he said. 香蕉视频直播�(But) I do think that O香蕉视频直播橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.香蕉视频直播�
The Tories香蕉视频直播� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, 香蕉视频直播渃learly a party of the right香蕉视频直播� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
香蕉视频直播淎lthough O香蕉视频直播橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesn香蕉视频直播檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.香蕉视频直播�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that O香蕉视频直播橳oole 香蕉视频直播� like prior leaders 香蕉视频直播� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic 香蕉视频直播� and in B.C. the raging wildfires 香蕉视频直播� may decide it香蕉视频直播檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
香蕉视频直播淚 think it香蕉视频直播檚 hard to see this as a campaign that香蕉视频直播檚 going to inspire anyone,香蕉视频直播� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
香蕉视频直播淚f had to put money down, I香蕉视频直播檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.香蕉视频直播�
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Editor香蕉视频直播檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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