Researchers and forest managers are turning to artificial intelligence in the hope it can help them predict the risk of catastrophic wildfires as climate change continues to rewrite the rule book.
It香蕉视频直播檚 been the subject of more than 150 recent academic studies, said Mike Flannigan, director of the Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science at the University of Alberta.
香蕉视频直播淚t is definitely front and centre in terms of the research agendas in terms of wildland fire and will continue to be for the next years,香蕉视频直播� he said.
One insurance company says it has already developed an artificial intelligence program that can assess fire risk well in advance.
Fires are fought before they start, by getting equipment and crews to the right place to fight them early. Once well and truly ablaze, they香蕉视频直播檙e tough to stop.
香蕉视频直播淥nce the fire gets to be a crown fire and it香蕉视频直播檚 two football fields or larger, it香蕉视频直播檚 nearly impossible to put it out until the weather changes,香蕉视频直播� Flannigan said. 香蕉视频直播淵ou香蕉视频直播檙e spitting on a campfire.香蕉视频直播�
The occurrence and severity of wildfires are hard to foresee, said Balz Grollimund of insurance giant Swiss Re. Droughts or forest conditions can be easily considered, but ignition depends on near-random events such as lightning strikes or the presence of roads.
Risk factors such as vegetation type also vary from place to place.
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香蕉视频直播淎ll these things are very tricky with wildfires,香蕉视频直播� Grollimund said. 香蕉视频直播淲e香蕉视频直播檙e trying to anticipate where wildfires will occur.香蕉视频直播�
Artificial intelligence is well-suited to find order in a chaotic mass of data, he said.
香蕉视频直播淵ou start with your observations. What have you seen in the past decades in terms of where wildfires have occurred and how big they got? And you look for correlations with any factor that might have any impact.
香蕉视频直播淭he question is which data really does have any correlation. That香蕉视频直播檚 where the AI comes in play. It automatically figures those correlations out.香蕉视频直播�
Grollimund said he香蕉视频直播檚 helped develop an artificial intelligence program that can predict fire risk as far as six months out.
He tested the program by feeding data from November 2015 from across Canada. Working with scientists and computers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he determined where the highest risk for fires would be in the spring of 2016.
香蕉视频直播淚t gives you a seasonal prediction for points on the map in terms of how likely it is to get a small fire or a large fire,香蕉视频直播� he said. 香蕉视频直播淚t香蕉视频直播檚 a pretty basic output.香蕉视频直播�
The vast majority of fires that did occur in April and May of that year happened in the high-risk zones identified by Grollimund香蕉视频直播檚 program.
Flannigan is working on his own artificial intelligence application.
香蕉视频直播淧icking up the patterns where fire growth and fire starts will be significant is where we香蕉视频直播檙e focusing on to see if we can beat traditional methods,香蕉视频直播� he said.
香蕉视频直播淚t looks like we香蕉视频直播檙e showing some promise, but I香蕉视频直播檓 very cautious. It will be a long time before it goes into fire management operations.香蕉视频直播�
Artificial intelligence will have stiff competition from Canada香蕉视频直播檚 current methods, which Flannigan said work well and are copied globally.
Both men agree that those methods depend on the future being much like the past. Climate change threatens that assumption.
香蕉视频直播淲ith climate change, we香蕉视频直播檙e seeing conditions and situations that have no real analogue in the recent past,香蕉视频直播� Flannigan said.
Swiss Re香蕉视频直播檚 data suggests that while the number of fires hasn香蕉视频直播檛 changed that much, the area burned is increasing.
Don香蕉视频直播檛 expect that to change, said Grollimund.
香蕉视频直播淎 lot of the factors that foster wildfire risk seem to increase 香蕉视频直播� longer, hotter, dryer summers; wetter winters; more vegetation; more lightning.
香蕉视频直播淭here香蕉视频直播檚 a lot of reasons why we think, if anything, (fire risk) is going to be increasing.香蕉视频直播�
Bob Weber, The Canadian Press
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