As the United States continues to threaten Canada with tariffs, two experts agree with B.C.'s desire to diversify its trade outside of North America, but also point to obstacles.

Both Ottawa and Victoria have identified trade diversification as a response to U.S. tariffs potentially coming as early as Feb. 1. Other responses include retaliatory tariffs and domestic reforms. 

Jairo Yunis, policy director with Business Council of British Columbia, said "diversifying our trading partners is an important part of becoming a more competitive province" but B.C also has to recognize that "geographical connections matter for two things." 

First, B.C.'s proximity to the United States drives down shipping costs, he said. Second, the United States is the world's largest economy, whose influence "creates an enormous gravitational pull that's very difficult to move away from." 

Yunis noted that B.C. has already reduced its dependence on the United States by lowering its share of U.S.-bound exports from 66 per cent 20 years ago to the current rate of around 54 per cent: the lowest among all Canadian provinces. But he also questioned how much more B.C. could diversify. 

Marc Lee, senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, BC Office, said trade diversification has always been an objective of both federal and provincial governments in pointing to various trade missions. 

"Whether it actually manifests itself as actual trade is hard to say," Lee said. 

Key markets for B.C. outside the United States including China, Japan and South Korea, accounting for 14 per cent, 11 per cent and six per cent of provincial exports. 

But the questions of what to extend and when are coloured by what form any United States tariffs take.

"The biggest challenge is uncertainty," Yunis said.

Canada is just one of many nations Trump has threatened. Lee said Canadian policymakers can also 香蕉视频直播渃oordinate香蕉视频直播� with some Asian, European and Latin American countries to "mutually reinforce each other's economies." Such a strategy could see B.C. sell more of its products to Latin America while buying more of its products in return, Lee added.

"As a resilience strategy, that would seem to make a lot sense, but I don't know if our policy-makers are there yet." 

A key emerging actor in global economics and politics is India, the world's most populous country. B.C. has strong cultural and historical ties there and has identified the country as an emerging market. But trade between India and B.C. is small compared to other jurisdictions. Whereas B.C. exports to the United States totalled $30.4 billion in 2023, exports to India totalled $1.4 billion, less than half of the exports purchased by the much smaller (and wealthier) South Korea. Overall, India accounts for 2.5 per cent of all B.C. exports. 

Lee said India could be a good market for B.C. beyond coal, currently its main Canadian purchase. Other products could include cleaner forms of energy and forest products, he said.

Asian-Pacific countries with high-energy needs might also benefit from stronger ties with B.C., Yunis added.

But any agenda to diversify trade also depends on other factors. Yunis noted potential partners in Latin America sell similar resource-based products to B.C. Geography also continues to matter, he added. Selling products to more distant markets comes with higher shipping costs. 

Both Yunis and Lee also broadly argue the tariff threats should become catalysts for domestic reform. 

"If Trump is serious about these tariffs and it's not just a negotiating ploy, then it means we need to look at other things," Lee said. "How do we deepen our domestic markets? How do we improve inter-provincial trade? How do we bring back some more stronger and more advanced manufacturing to Canada, not just being exporters of raw materials, which is what we have kind of drifted back over the last decade and a bit."

Yunis called for reform in B.C.'s permitting and regulatory processes, when it comes to our natural resource industry. 

"Addressing those policy challenges will have a higher impact on trying to mitigate those negative risks of tariffs," he said.