Political scientists see the Conservative Party of B.C. in the driver-seat when it comes to challenging the B.C. NDP, but it is not clear whether the provincial Tories will make in-roads in vote-rich urban B.C.
Dennis Pilon, Chair in the Department of Politics at York University, who previously taught at the University of Victoria, said the current split on the right side of the political spectrum is nothing new.
First the Socreds, then the B.C. Liberals, represented coalitions of more socially liberal urban voters and socially conservative rural voters, who found common ground in being pro-enterprise, fiscally conservative and anti-NDP, Pilon said.
Tensions have always defined these coalitions and the provincial Conservatives are currently benefiting from increased polarization and the strength of the federal Conservatives, he added. But this rise is not happening evenly across the province. Polls show the provincial Conservatives behind the NDP in Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria.
香蕉视频直播淭hey (Conservatives) are looking like they are in the pole position to see voters come to them as a party that can beat the NDP, but it is not clear that urban right-wingers will be prepared to sign on to the Conservatives,香蕉视频直播� Pilon said.
Only the election will tell whether enough former B.C. Liberals in the urban parts of B.C. 香蕉视频直播� many of them federal Liberals 香蕉视频直播� are 香蕉视频直播減repared to hold their nose and vote for a party with conservative in its name,香蕉视频直播� Pilon said.
He made these comments following Monday香蕉视频直播檚 defection of high-profile MLA Elenore Sturko to the Conservative Party of B.C. from B.C. United.
Its leader Kevin Falcon had personally recruited Sturko to run in Surrey-South, which she won in the fall of 2022. She has since then emerged as one of the most prolific MLAs on either side of the legislature.
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest considers her departure to the provincial Conservatives under John Rustad a 香蕉视频直播渟ignificant coup香蕉视频直播� for the party.
Sturko stands apart from her three caucus colleagues in several ways. She is not only a woman representing a fast-growing urban riding in Metro Vancouver, she is also a member of the 2SLGBTQ+ community.
Pilon said it not necessarily unusual for members of that community to be part of parties on the right side of political spectrum, pointing to former B.C. Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt.
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Prest said Sturko can 香蕉视频直播渉elp bolster香蕉视频直播� the argument of the provincial Conservatives as 香蕉视频直播渕ore of a big-tent香蕉视频直播� right-of-centre party.
香蕉视频直播淚香蕉视频直播檓 sure they (Conservatives) are really hoping that,香蕉视频直播� Pilon added.
But Prest and Pilon each expressed reservations about how far Sturko香蕉视频直播檚 new party and ultimately voters might buy her turn.
香蕉视频直播淚n this case, to see someone who is a self-described 2SLGBTQ activist joining a conservative party seems bit of a stretch and I can香蕉视频直播檛 help but feel people are going to see it as being pretty opportunistic,香蕉视频直播� Pilon said.
Prest, meanwhile, raises questions about the Conservatives香蕉视频直播� ideological consistency and whom the party actually represents. 香蕉视频直播淏ecause up until last year, it really was a party that was a welcoming home香蕉视频直播or the skeptics of modernity,香蕉视频直播� he said in pointing to the party香蕉视频直播檚 outside-the-mainstream positions on climate change, vaccines and social inclusion.
香蕉视频直播�(Those) voices are still there and they have been amplified,香蕉视频直播� Prest said. 香蕉视频直播淭he scrutiny is only going to increase this morning (after Sturko香蕉视频直播檚 defection).香蕉视频直播�
Rustad has consistently said his party has never been about any ideology and Sturko said Monday that she accepted the apology of Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford, who called her a 香蕉视频直播渨oke, lesbian, social justice warrior香蕉视频直播� on social media.
香蕉视频直播淵es, we could talk about Twitter all day, but what we need to do is unite with a party that is resonating with British Columbians,香蕉视频直播� Sturko said Monday.
Others have been less forgiving. Figures inside and outside of B.C. United have highlighted Sturko香蕉视频直播檚 previous criticisms of her new party. Some have also accused her of betraying the 2SLGBTQ community, a charge she has rejected.
Looking back, it is not unusual for a new centre-of-right party to emerge out of the ashes of another one, Pilon said. W.A.C Bennett, perhaps synoymous with the Socreds, was once a provincial Conservative, he said. B.C. Liberals, for their part, had emerged out of the Socreds.
Notably, B.C.香蕉视频直播檚 first-past-the-post, winner-take-all-electoral system leaves no room for a divided right, something Pilon finds ironic.
香蕉视频直播淭hey could adopt a proportional system and then every vote would count. But 香蕉视频直播榥o, no, no,香蕉视频直播� they wanted to keep this system where the votes don香蕉视频直播檛 necessarily match up with the seats,香蕉视频直播� he said. 香蕉视频直播淭his is the dilemma that the two right-of-centre parties have now. They actually don香蕉视频直播檛 want to unite.香蕉视频直播�
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