Ask John Wildenborg if he thinks Canadians will be paying more for steak during future barbecue seasons, and the owner of Calgary specialty butcher shop Master Meats doesn香蕉视频直播檛 hesitate.

香蕉视频直播淧rices are definitely going to go higher, no ifs, ands or buts about it,香蕉视频直播� he said.

香蕉视频直播淚t keeps me up at night, actually, thinking about coming into the summer and where prices are going to be. It香蕉视频直播檚 not a good situation.香蕉视频直播�

Beef 香蕉视频直播� whether in the form of a juicy burger or a classic tenderloin steak 香蕉视频直播� is a mainstay of many Canadians香蕉视频直播� diets. Its popularity is the reason why consumer demand for beef has historically remained strong, even through periods of economic downturn when Canadians have less money in their wallets.

But the business of beef is changing, in large part due to consecutive years of severe drought across North America香蕉视频直播檚 main cattle-producing regions. From parched southern Alberta to water-scarce east Texas, ranchers have been due to a lack of grass for grazing. The resulting shortfall in cattle supply is reducing overall beef production and helping to push retail beef prices higher.

香蕉视频直播淎 10-ounce New Yorker right now 香蕉视频直播� would cost around $20. Three years ago that was maybe a $15 steak,香蕉视频直播� Wildenborg said.

香蕉视频直播淎nd this is usually the slow time of year for beef, but wholesale prices haven香蕉视频直播檛 dropped off at all since Christmas. I香蕉视频直播檓 paying 40 per cent higher than I was last year at this time.香蕉视频直播�

Food in general, as consumers know, has increased in price over the last three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and an overall rising cost of living. But while inflation is starting to moderate in a number of food categories, the drought factor means beef prices are not.

香蕉视频直播淲hen you talk to producers, whether it香蕉视频直播檚 in the Canadian provinces or key cattle-producing regions of the United States, many producers will tell youthey香蕉视频直播檝e had to experience two 香蕉视频直播榟undred-year droughts香蕉视频直播� back-to-back over the course of 10 years,香蕉视频直播� said Lance Zimmerman, a Kansas-based senior beef analyst with Rabobank.

香蕉视频直播淎dd to that a global pandemic and all the challenges that go along with that, and we香蕉视频直播檝e had a 10- to 15-year period that香蕉视频直播檚 been particularly challenging for a lot of cattle producers. It has led to a lot of liquidation.香蕉视频直播�

Liquidation is when a rancher makes the decision to sell off a greater proportion of heifers and cows for slaughter rather than retaining them to grow his or her herd. Ranchers may decide to do this because of a variety of factors, including high input costs, limited labour availability and high interest rates, as well as the challenges associated with long-term drought.

In Canada, the size of the national cattle herd has been declining for years, a trend that continued last year amid a punishing drought in Western Canada. This country香蕉视频直播檚 beef cow inventory fell in 2023 by 1.5 per cent to 3.66 million animals 香蕉视频直播� the lowest level since 1989.

South of the border, U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show an even more dramatic story. There, the national cattle herd has been contracting for five years, reaching 28.2 million animals in 2023. That香蕉视频直播檚 the smallest number of cattle the U.S. has seen since 1961.

Fewer cattle means less beef production, which translates to fewer exports as well as higher prices at the retail counter.

香蕉视频直播淯nfortunately for the consumer, those prices are going to ratchet higher,香蕉视频直播� said Zimmerman.

香蕉视频直播淥n a U.S. basis, retail beef prices are currently about US$8 a pound, and by our estimation, over the next several years we can expect another dollar-and-a-half increase, quite easily.香蕉视频直播�

In southeast Alberta, near the tiny community of Jenner, rancher Brad Osadczuk shipped some of his cattle east to Saskatchewan last summer to graze on rented pastureland. It was the only way he could feed them because his own grassland was entirely depleted by drought.

香蕉视频直播淭his past year was the worst year for drought in adult life and I was born in 1971,香蕉视频直播� Osadczuk said. 香蕉视频直播淥ur native prairie just never turned green.香蕉视频直播�

While Osadczuk was able to avoid reducing his herd size, he said many ranchers in his area have been choosing not to replace cows after they sell them for at least the past five years.

香蕉视频直播淲e香蕉视频直播檝e been mitigating drought for a long time,香蕉视频直播� he said.

香蕉视频直播淪o we香蕉视频直播檙e kind of at a point in this part of Alberta where our herds are pretty small already.香蕉视频直播�

Even if the current drought cycle were to end this year, cattle numbers can香蕉视频直播檛 rebound overnight. That香蕉视频直播檚 why experts say the new era of higher beef prices is here to stay, at least for a while.

香蕉视频直播淭his isn香蕉视频直播檛 a short-term thing,香蕉视频直播� Osadczuk said.

香蕉视频直播淔or a female calf that is born today, it香蕉视频直播檚 four years before that female can have its own calf that can end up in the food chain.香蕉视频直播�

Anne Wasko, a Saskatchewan-based market analyst with Gateway Livestock, said North American cattle and beef supplies will remain tight for several years, and much is riding on Mother Nature.

香蕉视频直播淲e香蕉视频直播檙e going to be looking at smaller supplies in 香蕉视频直播�24, 香蕉视频直播�25 and possibly out as far as 香蕉视频直播�26,香蕉视频直播� she said.

香蕉视频直播淲e truly need moisture, first and foremost, to turn this boat around.香蕉视频直播�

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Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press