Hurricane Otis turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out how 香蕉视频直播� and why they didn香蕉视频直播檛 see it coming.
Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn香蕉视频直播檛 predict Otis香蕉视频直播� explosive intensification, creating a nightmare scenario of an unexpectedly strong storm striking at night. At least 27 people are dead and four missing in the destruction along Mexico香蕉视频直播檚 Pacific coast, with devastation that extends for miles.
All this after Acapulco was told to expect a tropical storm just below hurricane strength. Just 24 hours later, Otis blasted ashore with 165 mph (266 kph) winds, the strongest landfall of any East Pacific hurricane.
In just 12 hours, Otis香蕉视频直播� strength more than doubled from 70 mph (113 kph) winds to 160 mph (257 kph), also a record, as it neared the coast. And it got even stronger before it struck. Storms typically gain or lose a few miles per hour in 12 hours, though some outliers gain 30 to 50 mph (48 to 80 kph) in a day.
What happened with Otis was just plain nuts, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. But it coincides with a documented trend of because of warmer water connected to , scientists said.
Five different hurricane experts told The Associated Press they weren香蕉视频直播檛 quite sure what set Otis off and why it wasn香蕉视频直播檛 predicted, especially since meteorologists have been dramatically improving their intensity forecasts in recent years.
香蕉视频直播淭he models completely blew it,香蕉视频直播� said MIT atmospheric sciences professor Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert.
Experts point to lack of data on the storm and its surroundings and just not completely understanding what makes a storm act like it香蕉视频直播檚 on steroids.
And it really matters because in Otis香蕉视频直播� case, the storm was coming ashore when it muscled up.
香蕉视频直播淚t香蕉视频直播檚 one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you香蕉视频直播檙e expecting it,香蕉视频直播� McNoldy said. 香蕉视频直播淏ut to have it happen when you香蕉视频直播檙e not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare.香蕉视频直播�
For example, McNoldy, who lives in Miami, said a tropical storm forecast would prompt him to 香蕉视频直播渄o things like move some lightweight furniture in and take down wind chimes and things like that. That香蕉视频直播檚 about it. You香蕉视频直播檙e not preparing for a Category 5 hurricane.香蕉视频直播�
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said 香蕉视频直播渢hat香蕉视频直播檚 a very bad scenario, populated area, rapid intensification very close to landfall, a change in the expectations about the impacts that香蕉视频直播檚 happening on a time scale that doesn香蕉视频直播檛 give people a lot of time to respond.香蕉视频直播�
Brennan said Otis香蕉视频直播� unforeseen buildup was because 香蕉视频直播渋t found a much more favorable environment than we were anticipating.香蕉视频直播� He said one part was warm water, another was that the winds 香蕉视频直播� moving in the right direction and at the right altitude 香蕉视频直播� allowed a somewhat raggedy storm to rapidly develop structure and strengthen.
McNoldy said there may be a mystery ingredient that scientists just don香蕉视频直播檛 know right now, but water is key.
Warm water is fuel for hurricanes. Hot, deep water is like an all-you-can-eat buffet.
Globally, the world香蕉视频直播檚 oceans have been setting monthly surface heat records since April. The surface waters off the Mexican coast were warm but 香蕉视频直播渘ot crazy warm,香蕉视频直播� said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Bennan and McNoldy said those waters were maybe 1 or 2 degrees above normal.
Below that, the water was much hotter than usual 香蕉视频直播渁nd there香蕉视频直播檚 just a ton of fuel out there right now,香蕉视频直播� McNoldy said. Still, the storm didn香蕉视频直播檛 linger and feed on that, which would be expected in rapid intensification, Brennan said.
The heat content in the deeper ocean worldwide has been It香蕉视频直播檚 from human-caused climate change, McNoldy and other scientists said, as the oceans act as a sponge to absorb a lot of the excess heat caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas.
Otis and two other historically explosive cases of rapid intensification 香蕉视频直播� Patricia in 2015 and Wilma in 2005 香蕉视频直播� all happened in the same mid- to late-October time frame, when deeper water and ocean heat content is at its highest, McNoldy said.
Numerous studies have shown globally that there are than there used to be. An official definition of rapid intensification is a gain in strength of 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours. , many of them just before smacking land. In 2017, two devastating hurricanes, Harvey and Maria, rapidly intensified. Last month in the Atlantic, Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified from 80 mph (129 kph) to 155 mph (249 kph), but didn香蕉视频直播檛 hit anywhere.
香蕉视频直播淲e香蕉视频直播檙e seeing so many more cases of these just astonishing rapid intensification events,香蕉视频直播� said former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane and climate scientist Jim Kossin, now with the First Street Foundation.
Kossin said that there香蕉视频直播檚 evidence that what香蕉视频直播檚 happening globally over a longer time frame is due in part to human-caused climate change but it香蕉视频直播檚 hard to say that about an individual storm.
But, he added, 香蕉视频直播渢his is exactly the kind of thing we would expect to find as the climate warms.香蕉视频直播�
MIT香蕉视频直播檚 Emanuel said it might be more than just the water香蕉视频直播檚 temperature, but its low salinity, too. Water in that area at this time of year is fresher from heavy rains at the surface, and that changes the mix of water temperature, he said. Normally a hurricane mixes the warm water on the surface with cooler water below. But when the surface water is fresher, a storm pulls up even more hot water from below, which feeds the storm more 香蕉视频直播渁nd before you know it, you香蕉视频直播檙e in hot water,香蕉视频直播� Emanuel said.
One key test of that theory is whether Otis leaves warm water in its wake. Usually, hurricanes leave behind cold water. Emanuel hopes satellite images will show it, but it香蕉视频直播檚 not certain whether they香蕉视频直播檒l get the right view.
Another factor that Brennan and others mention is that perhaps forecasters underestimated Otis香蕉视频直播� original strength. That would mean it didn香蕉视频直播檛 intensify as much as it appears because it was stronger to begin with.
香蕉视频直播淭he East Pacific in a lot of ways is a huge data void,香蕉视频直播� Brennan said. 香蕉视频直播淭here香蕉视频直播檚 no buoys. There香蕉视频直播檚 very few land observations. There香蕉视频直播檚 no radars along the west coast of Mexico. So we香蕉视频直播檙e really reliant almost entirely on satellite imagery.香蕉视频直播�
And sometimes satellites, looking at a storm from high above, cannot get an accurate picture of what香蕉视频直播檚 going on.
Think of it like a jigsaw puzzle and forecasters at times have only 10% of the pieces, Brennan said.
Forecasters have far more tools to see what香蕉视频直播檚 happening in Atlantic storms, he said.
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Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press
